The Monty Hall Problem
Wednesday, April 9th, 2008
Liz and I went to see the movie 21 based on the book Bringing Down the House about some MIT students who went to Vegas and won a ton of money playing blackjack using card counting and signaling. While the movie way over dramatized the story, Kevin Spacey does an amazing job as always. One of his most memorable moments as an MIT professor is his description of variable change using the Monty Hall problem named after the host on the game show Let’s Make a Deal.
The Monty Hall Problem Explained
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
- Marilyn vos Savant
If you don’t know the answer yet I suggest you give it some thought and then try out this experiment by the New York Times or if you like to be treated like a little kid of feel lazy here’s a youtube explanation.
Got the answer? Cool. Once you’ve got you mind wrapped around this problem it’s pretty simple but apparently it wasn’t till just recently that psychologists understood it’s implications on cognitive dissonance.
If you dig that problem the NYT has a few other related problems too.
